US Carriers, Covid-19, and You: They Still Don’t Get It.

By Robert McGarvey

We aren’t flying and evidence mounts that many frequent flyers are unpersuaded that their health is a concern of the carriers. Screamed a Travel Weekly headline: “Many frequent flyers won’t be back for a while.” 

It elaborated that, according to research by consulting firm ICF, “Without a Covid-19 vaccine or widespread testing, 22% of frequent American travelers don’t expect to fly domestically until after summer 2021, according to an ICF survey.

“For international travel, that number jumps 41%.”

We have every reason to be skeptical – even fearful – of air travel, airports, and public transportation. This is all made scarily vivid in the “Safe Travel Barometer” compiled by consulting and analytics firm VIDEC.  What the company did was look at a range of metrics – are middle seats empty? Are face masks required? Are hand sanitizers available? Are there traveler temperature checks? Do passengers submit a health declaration form, etc?

US carriers are woeful underperformers. There are steps carriers can take to protect passengers and crew. But many US carriers just are not implementing them. 

You don’t want Covid-19 and I know that because I have had it.  It sucked. No, I wasn’t hospitalized. But I felt miserable for nine or ten days.

I did not get it on a trip.  But having had it, I am more cautious about getting in contact with people and places that may bring an encore. (And there is some evidence that antibody immunity, if there is any at all is fleeting.)

If there’s a powerful take-away from the Videc research, it’s fly international carriers to stay healthier.

Noted VIDEC: “only 31% of North American airlines introduced thermal scanning – among them American Airlines, Air Canada and Frontier Airlines. In contrast, 88% of Middle East airlines and 70% of Asia Pacific airlines have already enacted pre-boarding traveler temperature checks. Further, with the recent exception of Southwest Airlines, most of the commercial carriers in North America do not enforce travelers from declaring their recent health details, versus 33% of Asia Pacific airlines already doing so.”

What VIDEC has created is a table with carrier names on the left, and then checkpoints: Temperature checks, face masks, hand sanitizer, health declaration form, empty middle seat, etc.

Delta, for instance, whiffs on temperature checks and health declaration forms.  It succeeds with face masks and empty middle seats.

Is that good enough?

Singapore Air, by contract, requires temperature checks, face masks, and health declaration forms, and middle seats are empty.

My advice: check the VIDEC scorecard before booking a flight – and of course stay mindful that with many carriers the rules and requirements are in flux. At first, the main US carriers said they required face masks, for instance, but soon we realized the rules were not enforced. But now, apparently, on most US carriers face masks are in fact required.  

Can we not debate what is a good screening tactic for Covid-19 and what isn’t?  You bet, and in fact there are reasons to think temperature checks, while easy enough to do fast, are not reliable. Said WHO:  “Temperature screening alone, at exit or entry, is not an effective way to stop international spread, since infected individuals may be in incubation period, may not express apparent symptoms early on in the course of the disease, or may dissimulate fever through the use of antipyretics; in addition, such measures require substantial investments for what may bear little benefits.”

WHO offers its perspective on useful screens: “It is more effective to provide prevention recommendation messages to travellers and to collect health declarations at arrival, with travellers’ contact details, to allow for a proper risk assessment and a possible contact tracing of incoming travellers.”

Boil it down and in my view what I need, at a minimum, from a carrier is an enforced face mask requirement, an empty middle seat, and a health declaration form.  Hand sanitizer should be readily available too.

What all this is, though, is a changing puzzle. We are at around 500,000 deaths worldwide (about 25% in the US).  There is so much we still don’t know.  Safety practices need to stay flexible and adaptable.

The one undebatable reality: there need be better safety practices to get more of us back in the air and traipsing through airports.  Progress is getting made: the US carrier new insistence on face masks is a step. We just need more steps.

Coronavirus and Me, The Sequel

By Robert McGarvey

Did I infect anyone? How did I get it? Why did I survive?

And the true puzzler: Did I in fact have coronavirus at all?

Regular readers will remember my April column, Coronavirus and Me, in which I documented nine miserable March days spent in bed, with a high fever. I lost 10 pounds. Was very weak.  And then the fever broke and I was on the mend.  The column provides the vivid details.

Did I have it?

Last Friday I got an antibody test at a physician’s office and, bingo, I had it.  So the doc proclaimed.

Yes, I know the unreliability issues plaguing antibody tests.  But I take some perverse solace in a confirmation that I was right, I had the disease. Many of us apparently mistakenly believe they had it when probably they had the flu. Now I have the official word, I had it.

But once you are told you had had it, there are questions you need to ponder: did I make anyone else sick? How did I get it?  And the money question: why did I survive and over 100,000 have died?

Will I start traveling again? Not yet. There are still way too many questions about airports and airplanes and the lies we are told. Big corporations are hanging back from travel. Count me as following their lead, at least on this, for now.

Did I infect anyone? Not that I know.  As soon as I felt ill – an unusual event for me – I checked my symptoms against typical coronavirus symptoms and decided I probably had it. I live in an apartment tower where many of the residents are 60+ (higher risk) – it would have simply been very wrong to expose them to what I had. So I self-quarantined, for three weeks.  The first half was easy since I mainly was in bed and weakened.  And honestly it took another week after the fever broke before I regained my strength.

I did not much experience cabin fever.  What I was was very sick.

How my wife escaped the illness we don’t know. Maybe she had it and was asymptomatic (as many as 45% are believed to be).  The maddening thing about Covid-19 is that, six months into the pandemic, there is still much we don’t know. (Yes, she plans to get an antibody test soon.)

How did I get it? That is the single most common question I get and my answer disappoints: I don’t know.

I can tell you that in the run up I volunteered and helped feed hundreds of homeless in downtown Phoenix – but the homeless here so far have a negligible infection rate.

I took the lightrail a few times and public transit is a mode that is believed to spread the disease.  But I couldn’t prove it in my case.

And down the list.  I may have gotten it here or there. But I may not have.  

The devilish thing about Covid-19 is that it generally is an airborne transmission. Said the CDC: “The virus likely spreads primarily through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory infections spread. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.”

It can happen anywhere.  That’s reality (and it also is why masks now are mandatory for any right thinking people).

Why did I survive? Probably under 1% of cases result in mortality in the US.  Being male, 60+, and having underlying kidney, lung, heart or liver disease increases the odds of death. Obesity is another factor.

I am male and 60+ but have no uncontrolled health issues, my weight is in range, and I walk 5+ miles daily.

Routine lab work and a physical exam have found no Covid-19 lasting side-effects.

I count myself lucky.

Have I changed my routines since learning I have antibodies?  No, I am not planning any changes in my cautious behavior, especially not in Arizona, where I live amid spiking case numbers due to premature and politically motivated reopening and ending social distance guidelines. I have still worn face masks in public.  And my hair gets ever wilder.

You could say the odds are that I have some immunity and I would tell you the odds are heavily in my favor if I play Russian roulette with a six shooter – but the price of being wrong is too high.  Ditto for Covid-19. I do not want to go another bout with this demon disease and so I still maintain social distance in groups, I wear a mask (especially indoors in a group), and I avoid large gatherings, especially indoors.

For how long will I do it?  As long as it takes which, right now, looks to be another year or two, maybe as many as five.

I am in no rush.  I have been sick, it sucked.

Avoid it if you can – and good luck!

The Explosion in Travel Fraud: You’ll Pay the Tab

By Robert McGarvey

Call it a paradox: we just are not traveling, certainly not by air, and we are not staying in hotels but travel related fraud has exploded.

That’s according to the fraud experts at Forter which annually publishes a fraud attack index. The shock in this year’s edition is that fraud attack rates regarding airlines are up 72% over last year.  Fraud attack rates regarding hotels are up 109%.  Fraud attacks on car rental companies and rideshare services are up 86%.

Meantime, our travel habits have cratered. Last Sunday, June 7th, was something of a banner day because TSA screened more than 400,000, the highest number since March 22. That prompted The Points Guy to run a story headlined, Americans Are Flying Again. The story did note that this year’s total was only about 17% of the typical numbers pre-Covid-19.  The Points Guy added that in the first Sunday in June 2019, TSA screened more than 2.6 million people.

STR, which tracks hotel data, pegs average occupancy at about 25% nowadays, down 62% from last year. 

So what gives with the fraudsters?  What makes airlines and hotels so attractive to them?

First off, understand that although fraud is up for many of the sectors Forter tracks travel companies are especially victimized. Fraud is up 42% in variety stores.  32% in food and beverage. 13% in beauty.  9% in apparel.  5% in digital goods.  7% in ticketing and events. All much lower than the travel providers.

But there are sectors that saw a drop in fraud.  Auto parts is down 57%.  Jewelry down 25%.  Home and garden down 51%.

The only sector that rivals travel is what Forter calls money services and crypto currencies – up 90%. And call that the Willie Sutton effect.

Which brings us back to the key question: why the big jumps for travel related companies?  Forter bluntly explains why airlines are targets: “Data breaches and increased focus on loyalty program fraud are major contributing factors to this increase over the last year.”

For some years we have known and reported on attacks on airline loyalty programs.  Lots of data is out there, for sale, that will unlock loyalty programs for pilfering.  Make it a habit to frequently check any program in which you have significant points or miles.  How often is often enough? That’s your call.  For many of us once monthly is enough. 

Forter continues in its explanation of why airlines are prime victims: “Airlines have also suffered from a rising level of sophistication of fraud attacks.”

For instance: “fraudsters adapt their behaviors to better blend into good traffic. Instead of booking last-minute trips (which can often be a sign of potential suspicious activity), fraudsters are now booking their travel further in advance of the actual date of actual departure, making it more difficult for airlines and OTAs to distinguish fraud from legitimate customer activity.”

Simply put: criminals are getting smarter, airline defenses haven’t toughened up and so the theft grows.

Check your credit cards for flights you did not in fact take but are billed for. Forter told Travel Weekly that successful disputes of airline credit card sales were up 56% – which is a graphic proof of how active the crooks are. We need to be as determined as they are.

The Assault on Hotels

Here’s the irony: it’s something hotels have done right that has paved the way for more and more successful attacks.  Just about all the major hotel sites have worked hard to make it very easy to book a room.

So easy a criminal can more easily exploit the sites.

Said Forter: “The prevalence of increasingly ‘friction-free’ experiences for check-in to hotels have contributed to this increase. Fraudsters are taking advantage of these improved customer benefit offerings to slip into the legitimate bookings. This improved and seamless experience accounts for the rise in fraud in this area.”

When hotels noted the spike in fraud, they apparently built more speed bumps into the booking process – but that alienated some prospective guests and the hoteliers went back to an easy booking process.  Which the fraudsters are still exploiting.

Remember, too, to check hotel loyalty program holdings.  It’s up to you to monitor your balances. Those programs too have been looted by criminals.

And of course be ready to dispute any bogus hotel charges too.

On the Ground

As for ground transportation, it’s a similar story regarding frictionless booking proving tempting to crooks.  Said Forter: “car rentals and ride services apply less friction in their platforms (ease of pick up in parking, no ID required, etc.) in order to remain competitive in the market and for the perceived better customer experience. The push for friction-free customer experiences has created vulnerabilities in these platforms, which fraudsters have been targeting.”

The providers remain hung up on the horns of the familiar dilemma: if they introduce friction, they fear they will lose bookings. But if they maintain the status quo, fraudsters will pounce.

For you, it’s the same story: check any accounts you maintain with rideshare companies and rental companies – and be watchful for suspicious charges.

Here’s the reality: we just do not complain that loudly when travel providers get hacked.  The louder we yelled the more changes there would be.  But we stay mum and what we get is what we get.

It’s Not the Airplane, It’s the Airport

By Robert McGarvey

Many of us lately are consumed with one question: to fly or not to fly?  And in my case that has led me to catalog, perhaps exhaustively, the many failings of airplanes and carriers regarding sanitation, from filthy tray tables and restrooms to a failure to block middle row seating and a failure to enforce requirements for facemasks.  

But just maybe my eyes are on the wrong problem.

Carriers, if they have the will, probably can defeat Covid-19 on board. The CDC, in a travel bulletin, tells where the weak spots are: “Most viruses and other germs do not spread easily on flights because of how air circulates and is filtered on airplanes. However, social distancing is difficult on crowded flights, and you may have to sit near others (within 6 feet), sometimes for hours. This may increase your risk for exposure to the virus that causes COVID-19.”

The antidote is to in fact provide social distancing (fewer passengers) and also require facemasks.  If enough of us spurn air travel, carriers – for profit businesses with demanding shareholders – will do what needs doing to persuade us to fly again. And carriers already are showing signs of doing more.

And then my eyes land on this in the CDC travel bulletin: “Air travel requires spending time in security lines and airport terminals, which can bring you in close contact with other people and frequently touched surfaces.”

The average airport today is about as busy as a graveyard at midnight on a Monday but that will change.  There will be long lines – lots of people! – at security, check in, even the food courts. 

Thus this worrisome Travel Weekly article: “Airports prepare for crowding challenges.”

The article noted: “If we can’t make a safe, healthy and comfortable passenger experience coming out of this, we are going to end up with a protracted downturn,” said Chris Oswald, senior vice president of technical and regulatory affairs for the trade group Airports Council International — North America. Oswald said airports are “very concerned” about the difficulties that await when they must balance social distancing with traffic.

You got that right.

But can we trust airports to do the right thing?

The New York Times reported: “As to the airports, they are screening passengers’ temperatures through high- and low-tech means; using biometric screening to speed check-in, security and customs and immigration processes; and using autonomous robots to clean terminal floors.

But none of it is consistent. And it’s unclear whether the measures are enough.”

There are the problems: Does what airports do actually work? And the money question – what will they do when the first busy travel days hit them (Thanksgiving?)?

Some airports – mainly abroad – are busy putting tape on the floor and signs on the walls to remind passengers to stay 1.5 meters (6 ft.) apart. But will they?

Germans might in Munich Airport. But what about the restive crowds at EWR?

Will they follow the guidelines when there are more of us in the airport?

Some airports – Hong Kong for instance –  require a coronavirus test when a passenger lands.  But so far that is not a widely adopted protocol. No US airport has anything that rigorous and it is hard to see same, not this year.

Exactly how much testing and surveillance will passengers – especially US citizens – tolerate?  Right now much of the US seems intent on prematurely overthrowing land-based social distancing guidelines (at restaurants, barber shops, etc).  That they will obey strict distancing rules in airports is unlikely.

Where does this leave us? Basically to believe airports are safe we need to believe public and quasi public entities will in fact enforce protocols that might inconvenience many flyers but will keep us safer than if we did not have them.

And we have to believe almost all flyers will follow the guidelines.

In a country where many of us proudly report we don’t wear facemasks – despite the evidence that wearing them keeps everybody a little safer – it is difficult to believe government entities will insist upon and enforce the same sanitation protocols (such as wearing facemasks) at airports around the country.

It is impossible to believe just about all of us will in fact obey guidelines regarding social distancing and mandatory facemasks at airports.

And that is why I now believe it is airports that will keep me from a quick return to flying.  Many of us are determined to ignore commonsense and medical evidence, too many governments will appease that attitude, and the upshot is that it we ourselves who will be making our airports unsafe for flyers.

Are You Waiting for a Vaccine Before You Fly Again?

By Robert McGarvey

New data from consulting firm McKinsey suggests an intriguing – if troubling – possibility: just maybe we are waiting for a vaccine before we will fly again.

Talk about a spanner in the works.  That’s because realistic forecasts envision it taking 12 to 18 months before a safe, tested vaccine could be made available to a broad segment of the public.  Noted the Mayo Clinic, “Realistically, a vaccine will take 12 to 18 months or longer to develop and test in human clinical trials. And we don’t know yet whether an effective vaccine is possible for this virus.

“If a vaccine is approved, it will take time to produce, distribute and administer to the global population.”

Figure mid 2021. In the best case.

Other experts offer similar predictions.

Are you prepared not to fly until late 2021?

International travel is especially bashed in the McKinsey numbers, with 38% of us envisioning less of it.

The UN World Tourism Organization is saying international arrivals may slump by 78% this year.

The International Air Transport Association is saying it won’t revive until 2023.

But probably you could argue that the problem isn’t crossing borders, it’s duration of the flight – so maybe there’s also diminished enthusiasm for cross-country travel too. We just don’t want to be in a confined airplane with many other passengers for a lot of hours – and so we aren’t flying long trips.

Isn’t flying safer now? Aren’t airlines implementing new sanitary and health protocols?

Nah, not so you can trust them (last week’s column documented the many industry lies).  Yes, the carriers have banged their drums loudly, insisting they are safer, but I don’t believe them.

In fact not even the pilots feel safe.  The head of the Airline Pilots Association is on record saying the current protocols just don’t go far enough.

They don’t and know too that they simply are not enforced.  Most carriers are selling middle seats, they are not insisting passengers wear masks, and basically they are ignoring many of the rules they themselves wrote.

Remember, too, from 25 to 50% of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic.  That is a terrifying factoid.  See a person who is sniffling, sneezing, coughing and it’s a no brainer to cross the street or seek to change seats on a plane.

But what do you do in an elevator – that person next to you may be a carrier, without any symptoms.  He/she feels healthy. They are not being a jerk out in public spaces.  

The same could happen with an airplane seatmate.

And yet they just may be making you very sick because they may be positive for coronavirus but display no symptoms.

Thus the growing belief that only a vaccine will make us safe.

A temperature check is meaningless.  Self-reporting is too.

If you want to stay safe you need a vaccine if you plan to go out in bustling public spaces such as airports and airplanes.  

That’s especially true for older and more vulnerable populations that may not survive coronavirus because, of course, we still have no treatment (bleach is not widely accepted in medical circles).  

Can planes be made safe?  There’s a money question because if it takes a couple years for a vaccine that will reduce passenger anxiety, the question would be if any airlines will be left flying.

Scan the expert literature and probably – there is no certainty here – planes can be made safe with significant space between passengers, plastic screens to encase each passenger, really deep cleaning between flights and down a list of known protocols.

At what cost?

You hear estimates of a 50 to 100% bump in ticket prices. IATA, for instance, eyes a 50% bump.

Will businesses pay? Probably, especially if their employees can reasonably expect to stay safe and if – as many experts now believe – business travel volume will be significantly reduced for some years to come.

Will leisure travelers pay?  That is hard to say, especially because it is presently impossible to know how much damage the average household will suffer in this economic depression.  How many years will it take to recover from this wipeout?

The probable reality: there is going to be much, much less longhaul travel for some years to come.  If you have never been to the Seychelles, probably you aren’t going soon.

If you have routinely flown on business from SFO to Taipei or Singapore, probably you won’t this year, maybe not next year.

A vaccine could change those dire predictions.  

Until then, accept that coronavirus has changed everything. And we aren’t going back to “normal.”  Not ever.

Yet More Carrier Lies When We Want Safe Flying

By Robert McGarvey

I fell for them yet again.  I cannot explain this slip but I will tell you the level truth. In recent weeks, as friends asked me if I believed it safe to fly now, I unhesitatingy said yes.

Dumb me.

That is because I believed carrier assurances about flying with fewer passengers (empty middle seats!) and also believed them when they said passengers would be required to wear facemasks.

I offered my caveats – don’t use the restrooms, don’t eat or drink on the plane (except what you personally bring), and sanitize the tray table if you plan to use it.

“You’ll be good to go,” I said.

Erase every word of my positive vote.

That is because carriers are carriers and they can be counted on to lie.

Case in point: United, which will not block middle seats and where at least some planes are going out full.  

Right now, Delta and Southwest still say they will block middle seats but they will be watching United’s sales and if they get jealous, you know what they will do.

What about American?  Here’s a story about a packed American flight that was triggered by this tweet:

@Tamgonzalez28

Just flew on @AmericanAir flight AA1154 from Fresno to Dallas. Apparently airlines are exempt from CDC guidelines for social distancing. All rows with the exception of maybe 4 rows were completely full of passengers. I’ve never felt so unsafe in my life. @CNN @CDCgov

In response to the tweet, American said, “We’re working hard to create more space by limiting the number of customers on each flight. We’ll share your feedback with the right team.”

In a statement to Storyful, American said, “The aircraft was not at max capacity. As part of this limit, American will not assign 50% of main cabin middle seats or seats near flight attendant jump seats on every flight, and will only use those middle seats when necessary. Gate agents will also continue to reassign seats to create more space between customers or to accommodate families who need to be seated together.”

Which means?

Pretty much nothing in my reading.

Unmasking the Mask Hoax

Which brings us to the hoax question.

Central to my belief in the safety of flying today was the belief that all passengers would be required to wear masks.

Silly me.

While most carriers say masks are required – as they should be – the same carriers are simply not enforcing that policy.

Southwest acknowledges it has told staff not to deny boarding to passengers without masks.  

Here’s a story that claims half the people on a Southwest flight were maskless.  

Apparently no major US carrier is actually enforcing the facemask rule.

Airports Are the Wild West

There are no set rules regarding masks and airports. Of course there should be but just as we have an incoherent crazyquilt response to Covid-19 across the US, so it is with airports. Some – Pittsburgh – require masks. So does Phoenix Sky Harbor, starting June 1. LAX too requires masks. In Washington State SeaTac requires a mask – Spokane doesn’t.

A big question: how vigorously will this requirement be enforced?

And how’s a traveler to know where masks are required and where they aren’t? Confusion is inevitable with the nation’s piecemeal policies. Hint: just wear a mask wherever you go in public spaces. Also know that more airports now have vending machines that will sell you a mask!

What We Need to Feel Safe in the Skies

Before I again tell people flying is safe, we need to see three things:

Reduced capacity on flights, empty middle seats

Passengers required to wear facemasks at the boarding gate and inflight.

Airports require facemasks for all.

That’s not asking for much and as soon as we get the package I’ll happily advise people to resume flying.

Until then my suggestion is drive or stay home.

Know Your Rights

Do you have a right not to wear a facemask? Sure. If you sit on the wing.

Seriously, however, airlines refuse to board passengers because of trivial attire issues

American has kicked a family off because of body odor.

Some passengers have been kicked off planes for speaking Arabic.

There are many reasons airlines can invoke for ejecting a passenger. Not wearing a facemask could and should be one of them.

Do I like wearing a facemask?  Of course not.  But it’s the right thing to do.  It may keep me healthier and if I am sick it may keep those around me healthier.  

It’s part of being a good citizen.

Note: JoeSentMe members qualify for a deal on face masks. Stock up. While I am glad I discovered that airline amenity kit eye masks can be conscripted to stand in for a real face mask, the eye masks are harder to breathe through and not especially comfy when used as a face mask. Use the real deal. You’ll be glad when you are on flights.

Amex Plat: To Renew or Not?

By Robert McGarvey

$550 – that’s the annual fee for the Amex Platinum card and for some years I have readily paid it, plus $175 for a card for my wife, but this year I find myself asking, is it worth it?

The trigger is of course that the Centurion clubs – for me the prime attraction of the card (and before Centurion there was the rather broad access to carrier clubs) – are closed. Indefinitely. And definitely need a revamp when they do open and that throws into question the frequently tasty (and free!) buffet tables. There have also been capacity issues so how does Amex change access to make clubs less crowded (and thus safer) when too many want access to begin with?  Certainly the clubs will reopen but as what? With what rules? Nobody knows.

Besides, with business related travel now as sparse as it was in late 2001, I don’t much need the clubs anyway.

Also now lying unused in my hands is a $200 annual credit ($15/month plus a kicker in December) for Uber which I have personally used infrequently but often I gifted free rides to relatives and friends which made me seem a generous hero at no cost. But I have not summoned an Uber in two months and don’t anticipate doing so soon.

So do I renew the Platinum card or not?

You may face the same question. Particularly if you too have been a Centurion junkie.

As it happens, recently a friend who wants anonymity hit exactly the same moment of questioning.  Listen to his story: “In early April, my annual fee was due. I called and asked what they could do. Basically, I was looking for something like a $50 statement credit or something, just an acknowledgement that they are getting $550 from me and there probably would be nothing interesting for me. She said, ‘we got nothing, but we’ll defer your monthly fee for a month.’ I asked why that mattered. She said: You never know. I said fine.

“Fast forward to last week. Now the fee is due….So I call to cancel, knowing I’ll immediately be sent to the ‘retention specialist’ (AKA ‘saver’).”

And then what: “No counter offer. So I closed the card. First time in 35 years or so without a Platinum. First time since 1997 no Priority Pass.

“But the reality is Amex’s response here is irrational. They made me angry.”

Will I do likewise?

I go to the Amex website and what jumps out at me are two new benefits: a $20 monthly credit against a wireless bill (T-Mobile qualifies and I already have two lines there), also a $20 streaming video credit that I decide to apply to a new YouTube.TV account but could just as well use to pay my Netflix bill (which I realize I’d been paying via PayPal, don’t ask why).

Bingo, that’s about $280 in credits through the rest of the year. There’s no guarantee the credits will be offered in 2021, but I imagine about the time the credits lapse the Centurion clubs will be open again and there will be renewed need for Uber in my universe.

There’s also a new $200 travel credit that’s on top of the annual $200 credit against airline fees (for baggage check, booze inflight, a sandwich, etc). This new credit applies to purchases made on the Amex Travel Portal.

There also is elite status in the Hilton and Marriott BonVoy programs and I have activated both.

And I also discovered the card offers a $100 annual credit against purchases at Saks and that’s free money. I had not known about this perk until I poked around the card site. Do likewise and you may find neglected perks too.

Bottomline: I will renew.

Who’s right, me or my old pal?

We both are of course. Different people, different circumstances, different decisions.

The bigger point is that nowadays we all need to be assessing just about every fee- does it make sense? Should I do without? In a deep recession, with no end in sight, it only makes sense to monitor outgo.  

And don’t be shy about threatening to cancel. Sure, my pal got bupkis but on a different day, with a different vendor, there might be different results.  When I called T-Mo to drop one of my phone lines, the rep informed me that I am eligible for a special senior rate that basically provides two lines for the price of one. So I kept both lines but halved the rate just by asking.

When we called to cancel Cox cable, however, we were offered nothing meaningful – and cancel we did.

And maybe next year I too will cancel the Plat card. Times may change.

Are you assessing your renewals? Just do it. Something good very well may result.

Five Big Ways How I Travel in 2020 Will Change

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By Robert McGarvey

It’s sinking in: changes triggered by the coronavirus will create lasting and big changes in how we live – and especially in how we travel.

Here are five transformational new realities that will make 2020 travel seem substantially different from travel in 2019 or 2009. In some ways the 2020 travel may well be more pleasant – so don’t boo all the changes. Some I too will join in booing. But others looks good to me.

Face masks are us. It won’t be volitional. We will soon wear a face mask whenever we fly as increasing numbers of airlines make them mandatory. It’s a good thing. Are masks comfortable? Nah. But many of us feel safer wearing them and that’s important as we slowly return to flying. Note: JoeSentMe members qualify for a deal on face masks. Stock up. You will be needing them and, honestly, while I am glad I discovered that airline amenity kit eye masks can be conscripted to stand in for a real face mask, the eye masks are harder to breathe through and not especially comfy when used as a face mask. Use the real deal. You’ll be glad when you are on flights.

I will not use airport clubs (so long Centurion, a longtime personal favorite).  Of course that is moot because Amex has closed the lounges – sniff – but when they re-open instead of dashing in I will closely inspect the offering and then decide to go or not. But I can say overcrowded rooms, buffet dining, and the rest of the Centurion experience just will not be on my personal dance card anytime soon.  So much about the experience just is wrong when looked at from today’s perspective.  I hope Amex does a deep rethink on the lounges – but they have a tough dilemma to unravel, between balancing high demand for the clubs and present-day, pandemic shaped health concerns.  Good luck, Amex (and they will need it).

I do not expect to set foot into a Centurion in 2020. 2021? I definitely hope to. But the virus, and the coherence and effectiveness of our response as a nation, will make the decision.

Goodby free buffet breakfasts. I am a longtime fan of free hotel buffet breakfasts – and, sure, I do not tell my cardiologist because these are feasts of scrambled eggs, bacon, sausage and other stuff (sweet rolls!) that I know I should not be eating. But I do and, because it is free, I feel obligated. Sort of. And definitely I shovel it in.

How hotels and motels reinvent the free buffet breakfast I have no idea. The whole point is to pile an obscene amount of forbidden foods on a plate and no one will do that for me.

But the agreement is wide: the end of the buffet is upon us (and don’t ask how the Las Vegas Strip will reinvent the buffet because I doubt anybody knows).

Expect to pay more for flights. Most experts see significant jumps in ticket prices because – very probably – most carriers will sell fewer seats (they may leave middle seats vacant, as they once typically were some decades past). They may also cut back on services – possibly no food items for sale in coach and also possibly no booze.

Consider such steps a death blow for cheap flights, which depended upon stuffed planes and impulse buys of overpriced snacks and drinks for their profitability. I remember buying roundrip tix to Madrid simply because they were so cheap it was a deal I couldn’t refuse. Ditto flights to London, often. Yes, and Paris too. Who could say no?

I do not believe I will be seeing those prices again. Sigh. But I am grateful for the emptier planes, which I view as worth paying the price.

Side note: expect to pay more at fine dining restaurants too. With many expecting to serve only half as many diners as tables sit further apart, prices will go up, a price needing to be paid to maintain social distancing.

I will not use public transit to/from the airport.  That hurts me, a lot more than skipping the Centurion Lounge.  I like light rail and I like subways (I forget how I used to get from SFO to downtown before BART was extended to the airport) and it’s been my most consistent “think green” action. Does it compensate for the carbon associated with the flight? Of course not. But it’s been my gesture. And yet, right now, public transit just strikes me as screamingly unhealthy. So I will not use it.

Things are indeed different today.

When will we revert to the old “normal?” Impossible to say, maybe never, but certainly not before there is a widely available vaccine that has been proven effective. I would not bet on that widely available vaccine until perhaps a years from now, very possibly longer. So get used to travel differently, We’ll be doing it for some time.

Who Lost the Rideshare Brawl at Sky Harbor?

By Robert McGarvey

Sky Harbor and Ridesharing: The Update

It was just January when it looked as though Uber and Lyft were pulling out of servicing Phoenix’s Sky Harbor Airport, the nation’s 13th busiest, and the issue was that Phoenix wanted to tack a $4 charge on every trip (both pick ups and drop offs) and the ridesharing goliaths cried foul.

Riders have been paying $2.66 for pick ups at the airport. No fee for drop offs.

Why did Phoenix want to hike the fares? Phoenix faces the same issue every airport does. The ridesharing companies quickly have grabbed dominant marketshares – but in many cases are paying less than taxi companies.  Many government eyes across the country were on Sky Harbor because every airport faces the same problem of plummeting taxi usage and thus radically reduced income.

That made this fight important. What happened in Phoenix is going to happen across the nation.

Spoiler: You are not going to like how this story ends. And that is true even if you don’t step into Sky Harbor in the next decade.

Back to six months ago and the history that got us here.

Phoenix may have thought it had law on its side but Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich filed suit against the city, claiming the charges were unconstitutional. That gave the rideshare operators potent cover.

And so the sides were clearly drawn. Phoenix said it wanted and needed the increased fee revenue. Both Lyft and Uber – which account for 80% of commercial traffic at Sky Harbor – said no way, they would pull out before they would pay those fees or pass them on to riders.

In November, Lyft plainly threw down its gauntlet: “We have reviewed our options at Sky Harbor and believe we are obligated to prevent the unfair penalization of our drivers and riders,” Lyft spokesperson Lauren Alexander said in a statement.

Not a lot of wiggle room in that verbiage, is there?

Look again because apparently there is.

In early April, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled the fees are constitutional – and the game of chicken was on. 

The new fees kick in May 1, by the way.

It did not take long for one side to blink.

Lyft, earlier this week, said this: “While we remain concerned about parity across ground transportation modes and affordability, particularly during this challenging time, our full focus is on the safety of our riders, drivers, and team members,” Lyft said in a statement to KTAR News 92.3 FM.

“We will continue to operate at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport to provide travelers with access to reliable transportation and earning opportunities for drivers.”

Uber has yet to be heard from but it will fold as well.  

It’s all about the money, baby.

Uber cannot afford to allow Lyft to control Sky Harbor and all the more so because for many of us airport transit is the gateway into ridesharing.  Use it instead of a taxi and, often, the cars are cleaner, the drivers are friendlier, and the fares are typically lower.

If we started using Lyft for airport transit, Uber has to figure, soon we would become Lyft regulars and Uber cannot allow that.

Probably, too, even with the $4 fee, it will usually be cheaper to take Uber or Lyft to the airport than a taxi.

Here’s the thing, don’t cry for Lyft or Uber.  Cry for yourself.  Cry for the other passengers. We are who will pay the $4 fee. Not Lyft, not Uber.  Nor the gig economy drivers. Us.

And we will pay it not just at Sky Harbor but at airports around the country, just about all of which are grappling with unbalanced budgets and slapping higher fees on Uber and Lyft just seems an easy thing to do.

They will see what happened in Phoenix, a light bulb will click and, watch, airport after airport will impose higher fees on rideshares.

And we will pay it. You and I.

Updated: Uber as expected has told the Arizona Republic it will continue to service Sky Harbor. It provided the paper no statement.

Are You Itching to Schedule New Events and Conferences?

By Robert McGarvey

Survey data from APCO Insight throws out this shocker of a number: 83% of workers forced to work from home say they miss attending in person meetings and conventions.

78% say they will attend as many such events – or more – as they had been once the threat of coronavirus passes.

49% also want to extend federal aid to convention centers and suchlike – venues that have been wiped out by coronavirus triggered closures.

Do you agree?

Understand, I am on record that there won’t be any conferences to attend this year. I am also looking at research data that suggest such events are fertile breeding grounds for coronavirus.

Of course I understand the anxiety that envelops event planners who are looking at a cancelled year.  Only cruise lines have it as bad – they likely won’t recover until 2021, if then.

Hotels, my guess is, will begin a slow recovery this summer.  But there are glimmers of hope for that business.

Not in the near-term for events and conferences in my mind, and that’s despite the  APCO Insight poll. My guess is that most of us will be gripped with fear at the prospect of sharing an event venue with hundreds or thousands of others. Sure, we may say we miss such events – I confess I do – but that does not mean I plan to go to any soon.

I do not.

What about the White House’s apparent determination to reopen the economy by May 1?

What about it?  The White House may believe it has the authority to reopen the economy but it does not.  That power primarily resides with state governors, and most of the governors of the biggest state economies will not trip over themselves to cooperate with this White House.  

The power also resides with us, especially when it comes to events, conferences, conventions.  When we said no after 9/11, the sector effectively shut and really did not begin to recover until 2002.

In 2001 it was a powerful fear of flying that grounded us. This year it’s more complicated: it’s a fear of a communicable disease. But the CDC said fears about air travel in particular and the virus are exaggerated: “Although the risk of infection on an airplane is low, try to avoid contact with sick passengers, avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth with unwashed hands, and wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or use hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol.”

The plane itself may not be that high risk for a typical passenger. Right now may in fact be quite safe because passenger counts are very low and airlines have instituted new sanitary procedures.  

Would I fly today? Yes. I would be mindful, I would wear a face mask, I would wash my hands a lot. But I would fly.

But then there are the real concerns about the safety of large gatherings – which most states now ban or discourage. And that of course means conferences and conventions.

Many other large gatherings also are in trouble. Right now there are whispers – that get louder – that the fall college football season will be cancelled, certainly for the schools that play games in large stadiums.  That is hundreds of millions of dollars – perhaps billions.  

If college football is cancelled – and it is tantamount to a religion to many – nothing is sacrosanct.

Conventions and conferences also are huge business – certainly to Las Vegas, San Francisco, Chicago, Orlando, Anaheim, New York. But even to second and third tier cities such as downtown Phoenix (which is shockingly unpopulated, in part because there are no events now).

But the choice will be yours: Do you put your health at risk, especially in the absence of a coronavirus vaccine?

You and I will decide the recovery speed of the events industry.

When a vaccine is commercially viable, most fears will vanish – and good times will return for conventions and conferences. Some 70 vaccines are said to be in development, some experts are talking about vaccines on the market as early as this fall, and so there is plenty of reason for optimism.

But there also is plenty of reason not to want to see us rush into risky situations.  Social distancing seems to be working, crowds in some cases seem to be deadly, and when my life is on the line I am skipping the conference.  It’s the prudent choice, at least until a vaccine removes most of our fears.

What’s your choice?