Coronavirus and Me, The Sequel

By Robert McGarvey

Did I infect anyone? How did I get it? Why did I survive?

And the true puzzler: Did I in fact have coronavirus at all?

Regular readers will remember my April column, Coronavirus and Me, in which I documented nine miserable March days spent in bed, with a high fever. I lost 10 pounds. Was very weak.  And then the fever broke and I was on the mend.  The column provides the vivid details.

Did I have it?

Last Friday I got an antibody test at a physician’s office and, bingo, I had it.  So the doc proclaimed.

Yes, I know the unreliability issues plaguing antibody tests.  But I take some perverse solace in a confirmation that I was right, I had the disease. Many of us apparently mistakenly believe they had it when probably they had the flu. Now I have the official word, I had it.

But once you are told you had had it, there are questions you need to ponder: did I make anyone else sick? How did I get it?  And the money question: why did I survive and over 100,000 have died?

Will I start traveling again? Not yet. There are still way too many questions about airports and airplanes and the lies we are told. Big corporations are hanging back from travel. Count me as following their lead, at least on this, for now.

Did I infect anyone? Not that I know.  As soon as I felt ill – an unusual event for me – I checked my symptoms against typical coronavirus symptoms and decided I probably had it. I live in an apartment tower where many of the residents are 60+ (higher risk) – it would have simply been very wrong to expose them to what I had. So I self-quarantined, for three weeks.  The first half was easy since I mainly was in bed and weakened.  And honestly it took another week after the fever broke before I regained my strength.

I did not much experience cabin fever.  What I was was very sick.

How my wife escaped the illness we don’t know. Maybe she had it and was asymptomatic (as many as 45% are believed to be).  The maddening thing about Covid-19 is that, six months into the pandemic, there is still much we don’t know. (Yes, she plans to get an antibody test soon.)

How did I get it? That is the single most common question I get and my answer disappoints: I don’t know.

I can tell you that in the run up I volunteered and helped feed hundreds of homeless in downtown Phoenix – but the homeless here so far have a negligible infection rate.

I took the lightrail a few times and public transit is a mode that is believed to spread the disease.  But I couldn’t prove it in my case.

And down the list.  I may have gotten it here or there. But I may not have.  

The devilish thing about Covid-19 is that it generally is an airborne transmission. Said the CDC: “The virus likely spreads primarily through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory infections spread. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.”

It can happen anywhere.  That’s reality (and it also is why masks now are mandatory for any right thinking people).

Why did I survive? Probably under 1% of cases result in mortality in the US.  Being male, 60+, and having underlying kidney, lung, heart or liver disease increases the odds of death. Obesity is another factor.

I am male and 60+ but have no uncontrolled health issues, my weight is in range, and I walk 5+ miles daily.

Routine lab work and a physical exam have found no Covid-19 lasting side-effects.

I count myself lucky.

Have I changed my routines since learning I have antibodies?  No, I am not planning any changes in my cautious behavior, especially not in Arizona, where I live amid spiking case numbers due to premature and politically motivated reopening and ending social distance guidelines. I have still worn face masks in public.  And my hair gets ever wilder.

You could say the odds are that I have some immunity and I would tell you the odds are heavily in my favor if I play Russian roulette with a six shooter – but the price of being wrong is too high.  Ditto for Covid-19. I do not want to go another bout with this demon disease and so I still maintain social distance in groups, I wear a mask (especially indoors in a group), and I avoid large gatherings, especially indoors.

For how long will I do it?  As long as it takes which, right now, looks to be another year or two, maybe as many as five.

I am in no rush.  I have been sick, it sucked.

Avoid it if you can – and good luck!

CU 2.0 Podcast Episode 96 Steve Winninger Talking Boards and Governance

by Robert McGarvey

Steve Winninger is the man to talk with about credit union boards and governance.

A longtime credit union CEO – 20 years at Lake Trust – now a $1.6 billion institution based in Michigan – plus he also served as CEO at IBM Lexington and since retiring from Lake Trust he has put in stints as CEO at four credit unions (only one of which merged out of existence).

But Steve is a rare CEO.  He loves talking about the role of the board and – done right – a board should be crucial in a credit union’s prosperity.

But many CEOs grumble about board meddling. In other credit unions – mainly larger ones – it’s the board that grumbles that they are ignored.

Sigh.

Hear Winninger’s views on that dichotomy in this podcast.

In this podcast Winninger spells out the four steps a good board must take. Must. No exceptions.

We also talk about whether boards are ready and able to help in the immensely difficult decisions that loom as credit unions wrestle with the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In this podcast we talk about some writing I did on Partners Credit Union – click the link and read about it.  There’s a mention of Maine Harvest Credit Union, also the effort to form a student credit union at George Washington University.   Follow the links to hear the CU 2.0 Podcasts.

Listen to the Winninger podcast here.

Like what you are hearing? Find out how you can help sponsor this podcast here. Very affordable sponsorship packages are available. Email rjmcgarvey@gmail.com

Find out more about CU2.0 and the digital transformation of credit unions here. It’s a journey every credit union needs to take. Pronto

CU 2.0 Podcast Episode 95 Carma Peters, CEO Michigan Legacy Credit Union on Digital, Covid-19 and CU Survival 2020 Style

by Robert McGarvey

Michigan Legacy Credit Union just may be a unique $220 million institution – it’s the product of five mergers in five years, said Carma Peters, the CEO.  And now she said the institution is on a huge digital push, an initiative that had been in the works but Covid-19 has intensified the effort.

One Michigan Legacy employee has died from Covid-19. So did a former member of the board.

All this hits Peters hard and, she said, she tells employees and also members that there is no rush to re-open the credit union’s six branches

“We sent out a strong message from the start of the pandemic that the safest way to bank was for members to use online and mobile banking and webchat, rather than coming into the branch,” Peters said. “While we were hopeful that members would comply, the shift to online banking has been dramatic, with 50,000 more online transactions in April than we had in March. That’s a 38% increase.”

Peters thinks that shift is permanent and she is deep into a total revamp of the branches. The remodeled ones will be around 1200 sq. ft apiece. “We are downsizing 35,000 sq. ft.” said Peters.

There won’t be a teller line.  There will be a couple ATMs, also a drive-through teller.  And Michigan First will provide members with video banking (and she tells about a much more affordable option that she is installing in her credit union).

The big question: can credit unions the size of Michigan Legacy survive?

You bet, said Peters.  And she goes a step farther – she helps smaller credit unions survive by helping them with tasks that may be beyond their staff’s skills.  Why? It’s the credit union way: helping others.

This is an optimistic podcast about small credit union survival. Listen here

In this podcast, there’s mention of Jim Blaine (podcast here), also Randy Karnes (podcast here), and a video tool named Popi/o (linked here).

Like what you are hearing? Find out how you can help sponsor this podcast here. Very affordable sponsorship packages are available. Email rjmcgarvey@gmail.com

Find out more about CU2.0 and the digital transformation of credit unions here. It’s a journey every credit union needs to take. Pronto

Are You Ready for the Brave New World of Post-pandemic Tech: Credit Union Advisory

by Robert McGarvey

The realization is growing: at credit unions there is no “return to normal.” Forevermore how business is done will be different. And, a lot more technology focused.

That is the conclusion from dozens of conversations I have had over the past weeks with credit union CEOs, consultants, and just plain members. To a person, they all had initially thought the COVID-19 triggered changes – from branch closures to huge spikes in online and mobile banking transactions – were a fleeting change.

Things are different three months into the pandemic response. “I expect a lot of the changes that were made in credit unions will remain in place. We are not going back to how things exactly were before,” said Brad Smith, a credit union expert with consulting firm Cornerstone Advisors.

Continued at CUInsight

Mobile Account Origination: Pass or Fail?

by Robert McGarvey

Easy question for you: can consumers originate a new account at your credit union within the mobile app?

I’ll bet you I know the answer and that is because the answer almost certainly is no.

This snippet from a recent Pymnts.com piece explains my confidence: “Only 8 percent of financial service onboarding applications, which includes personal account opening creation, can be completed on smartphones.”

That 8% number would have been terrible in, say, February. By now, it’s exponentially more awful, as many credit unions continue to keep branches closed or operating in a reduced form as ways of responding to the Covid-19 epidemic. So, where are consumers hunting for financial info now? In many cases, on their phones, because it’s the phone that always is with them.

Continued at the CU2.0 blog.

The Explosion in Travel Fraud: You’ll Pay the Tab

By Robert McGarvey

Call it a paradox: we just are not traveling, certainly not by air, and we are not staying in hotels but travel related fraud has exploded.

That’s according to the fraud experts at Forter which annually publishes a fraud attack index. The shock in this year’s edition is that fraud attack rates regarding airlines are up 72% over last year.  Fraud attack rates regarding hotels are up 109%.  Fraud attacks on car rental companies and rideshare services are up 86%.

Meantime, our travel habits have cratered. Last Sunday, June 7th, was something of a banner day because TSA screened more than 400,000, the highest number since March 22. That prompted The Points Guy to run a story headlined, Americans Are Flying Again. The story did note that this year’s total was only about 17% of the typical numbers pre-Covid-19.  The Points Guy added that in the first Sunday in June 2019, TSA screened more than 2.6 million people.

STR, which tracks hotel data, pegs average occupancy at about 25% nowadays, down 62% from last year. 

So what gives with the fraudsters?  What makes airlines and hotels so attractive to them?

First off, understand that although fraud is up for many of the sectors Forter tracks travel companies are especially victimized. Fraud is up 42% in variety stores.  32% in food and beverage. 13% in beauty.  9% in apparel.  5% in digital goods.  7% in ticketing and events. All much lower than the travel providers.

But there are sectors that saw a drop in fraud.  Auto parts is down 57%.  Jewelry down 25%.  Home and garden down 51%.

The only sector that rivals travel is what Forter calls money services and crypto currencies – up 90%. And call that the Willie Sutton effect.

Which brings us back to the key question: why the big jumps for travel related companies?  Forter bluntly explains why airlines are targets: “Data breaches and increased focus on loyalty program fraud are major contributing factors to this increase over the last year.”

For some years we have known and reported on attacks on airline loyalty programs.  Lots of data is out there, for sale, that will unlock loyalty programs for pilfering.  Make it a habit to frequently check any program in which you have significant points or miles.  How often is often enough? That’s your call.  For many of us once monthly is enough. 

Forter continues in its explanation of why airlines are prime victims: “Airlines have also suffered from a rising level of sophistication of fraud attacks.”

For instance: “fraudsters adapt their behaviors to better blend into good traffic. Instead of booking last-minute trips (which can often be a sign of potential suspicious activity), fraudsters are now booking their travel further in advance of the actual date of actual departure, making it more difficult for airlines and OTAs to distinguish fraud from legitimate customer activity.”

Simply put: criminals are getting smarter, airline defenses haven’t toughened up and so the theft grows.

Check your credit cards for flights you did not in fact take but are billed for. Forter told Travel Weekly that successful disputes of airline credit card sales were up 56% – which is a graphic proof of how active the crooks are. We need to be as determined as they are.

The Assault on Hotels

Here’s the irony: it’s something hotels have done right that has paved the way for more and more successful attacks.  Just about all the major hotel sites have worked hard to make it very easy to book a room.

So easy a criminal can more easily exploit the sites.

Said Forter: “The prevalence of increasingly ‘friction-free’ experiences for check-in to hotels have contributed to this increase. Fraudsters are taking advantage of these improved customer benefit offerings to slip into the legitimate bookings. This improved and seamless experience accounts for the rise in fraud in this area.”

When hotels noted the spike in fraud, they apparently built more speed bumps into the booking process – but that alienated some prospective guests and the hoteliers went back to an easy booking process.  Which the fraudsters are still exploiting.

Remember, too, to check hotel loyalty program holdings.  It’s up to you to monitor your balances. Those programs too have been looted by criminals.

And of course be ready to dispute any bogus hotel charges too.

On the Ground

As for ground transportation, it’s a similar story regarding frictionless booking proving tempting to crooks.  Said Forter: “car rentals and ride services apply less friction in their platforms (ease of pick up in parking, no ID required, etc.) in order to remain competitive in the market and for the perceived better customer experience. The push for friction-free customer experiences has created vulnerabilities in these platforms, which fraudsters have been targeting.”

The providers remain hung up on the horns of the familiar dilemma: if they introduce friction, they fear they will lose bookings. But if they maintain the status quo, fraudsters will pounce.

For you, it’s the same story: check any accounts you maintain with rideshare companies and rental companies – and be watchful for suspicious charges.

Here’s the reality: we just do not complain that loudly when travel providers get hacked.  The louder we yelled the more changes there would be.  But we stay mum and what we get is what we get.

CU 2.0 Episode 94 Nabil Hannan on Cybersecurity, Remote Workers, Mergers and Your Credit Union

Cybersecurity starts with you.

“It’s about people,” said Nabil Hannan, managing director at cybersecurity firm NetSPI when asked when cybersecurity goes right and when it goes wrong.  He added in this podcast that Covid-19 and credit union responses have triggered their own cybersecurity issues that are very particular to today.

But they also need timely responses to thwart hackers.

Case in point: some workers are instructed to take their desktop computer home to work.  Question: does that box have full disk encryption set up? Many office computers do not. But what if it is stolen from the home?

Maybe even worse, some organizations sent workers home with older machines running old versions of Windows – including XP – and the bad news is that hackers already have bots scouring the net looking for XP machines because there are readily available hacking scripts that effectively automate an attack. No computer skill is needed by the hacker who has found an XP machine.

Hannan also has worked on cybersecurity issues that arise when two institutions merge – something many experts believe will happen with accelerated frequency among credit unions dealing with the fallout of the Covid-19 impacts on the economy.

In one case he worked for 2-1/2 to 3 years sorting out cybersecurity issues that arose when two large financial institutions merged.

 Two credit unions probably won’t have that much complexity.  But even a merger of small credit unions raises cybersecurity complexities because generally the two institutions will have divergent approaches and a common ground has to be found and implemented. ASAP.  Because hackers hunt for gaps and exploit the ones they find.

A bottomline problem: too many credit unions see cybersecurity as a cost. Period.  It does cost. That’s a fact. But think of the enormous costs of a security failure.  What hurts more?

Don’t think this is a techie podcast. It’s not. It’s an enjoyable – intelligent – look a what a credit union executive needs to know about cybersecurity in today’s Covid-19 world.  It’s not just for propellerheads. It’s news you need to know.

Listen up.

Fyi: Hannan has his own podcast, Agent of Influence.  Hear it here.
Like what you are hearing? Find out how you can help sponsor this podcast here. Very affordable sponsorship packages are available. Email rjmcgarvey@gmail.comFind out more about CU2.0 and the digital transformation of credit unions here. It’s a journey every credit union needs to take. Pronto

CU 2.0 Podcast Episode 93 Lee Miller Renofi on Smarter Home Improvement Loans

America’s housing stock is old – often over 50 years of age in much of the nation and owners want, need, improvements to live in the home they want.

The problem: many buyers stretch to buy their home and they do not have that much equity built up, even after five or perhaps even ten years in the house. But now there are two more children, maybe a grandparent, added to the family and where does everybody sleep.

Historically, home improvement loans have ignored an obvious reality: many projects significantly increase the value of the home,

Sure, some do not – pools usually, saunas, a green house.

But add a bedroom,or a bathroom, or update a kitchen and that house is worth more money.

TV watchers know that from HGTV’s long-running “Love It Or List It” where after every reno, the realtor tells how much more the house is worth. Similar happens on “Fixer Upper.”

So why can’t a loan be created around the probable higher value of a home post renovation?

Why not indeed. That’s what the founders of Renofi asked and they now have created a fintech to help credit unions make loans based on that calculation.

In the process, Renofi has processes for calculating what value in fact a particular renovation will add in a specific market and also conducts due diligence on the contractor associated with the project.

Renofi already works with several credit unions – you will hear specifics in the podcast – and wants to hear from more.

Here’s what Renofi tells credit unions about itself: “RenoFi is a turn-key, end-to-end growth channel. We help our partner Credit Unions grow their loan portfolio by delivering highly-qualified new members seeking home renovation loans that meet your institution’s specific underwriting criteria.”

Sound good?

Listen to the podcast to learn more specifics.

And check out Renofi’s website.

Like what you are hearing? Find out how you can help sponsor this podcast here. Very affordable sponsorship packages are available. Email rjmcgarvey@gmail.comFind out more about CU2.0 and the digital transformation of credit unions here. It’s a journey every credit union needs to take. Pronto

It’s Not the Airplane, It’s the Airport

By Robert McGarvey

Many of us lately are consumed with one question: to fly or not to fly?  And in my case that has led me to catalog, perhaps exhaustively, the many failings of airplanes and carriers regarding sanitation, from filthy tray tables and restrooms to a failure to block middle row seating and a failure to enforce requirements for facemasks.  

But just maybe my eyes are on the wrong problem.

Carriers, if they have the will, probably can defeat Covid-19 on board. The CDC, in a travel bulletin, tells where the weak spots are: “Most viruses and other germs do not spread easily on flights because of how air circulates and is filtered on airplanes. However, social distancing is difficult on crowded flights, and you may have to sit near others (within 6 feet), sometimes for hours. This may increase your risk for exposure to the virus that causes COVID-19.”

The antidote is to in fact provide social distancing (fewer passengers) and also require facemasks.  If enough of us spurn air travel, carriers – for profit businesses with demanding shareholders – will do what needs doing to persuade us to fly again. And carriers already are showing signs of doing more.

And then my eyes land on this in the CDC travel bulletin: “Air travel requires spending time in security lines and airport terminals, which can bring you in close contact with other people and frequently touched surfaces.”

The average airport today is about as busy as a graveyard at midnight on a Monday but that will change.  There will be long lines – lots of people! – at security, check in, even the food courts. 

Thus this worrisome Travel Weekly article: “Airports prepare for crowding challenges.”

The article noted: “If we can’t make a safe, healthy and comfortable passenger experience coming out of this, we are going to end up with a protracted downturn,” said Chris Oswald, senior vice president of technical and regulatory affairs for the trade group Airports Council International — North America. Oswald said airports are “very concerned” about the difficulties that await when they must balance social distancing with traffic.

You got that right.

But can we trust airports to do the right thing?

The New York Times reported: “As to the airports, they are screening passengers’ temperatures through high- and low-tech means; using biometric screening to speed check-in, security and customs and immigration processes; and using autonomous robots to clean terminal floors.

But none of it is consistent. And it’s unclear whether the measures are enough.”

There are the problems: Does what airports do actually work? And the money question – what will they do when the first busy travel days hit them (Thanksgiving?)?

Some airports – mainly abroad – are busy putting tape on the floor and signs on the walls to remind passengers to stay 1.5 meters (6 ft.) apart. But will they?

Germans might in Munich Airport. But what about the restive crowds at EWR?

Will they follow the guidelines when there are more of us in the airport?

Some airports – Hong Kong for instance –  require a coronavirus test when a passenger lands.  But so far that is not a widely adopted protocol. No US airport has anything that rigorous and it is hard to see same, not this year.

Exactly how much testing and surveillance will passengers – especially US citizens – tolerate?  Right now much of the US seems intent on prematurely overthrowing land-based social distancing guidelines (at restaurants, barber shops, etc).  That they will obey strict distancing rules in airports is unlikely.

Where does this leave us? Basically to believe airports are safe we need to believe public and quasi public entities will in fact enforce protocols that might inconvenience many flyers but will keep us safer than if we did not have them.

And we have to believe almost all flyers will follow the guidelines.

In a country where many of us proudly report we don’t wear facemasks – despite the evidence that wearing them keeps everybody a little safer – it is difficult to believe government entities will insist upon and enforce the same sanitation protocols (such as wearing facemasks) at airports around the country.

It is impossible to believe just about all of us will in fact obey guidelines regarding social distancing and mandatory facemasks at airports.

And that is why I now believe it is airports that will keep me from a quick return to flying.  Many of us are determined to ignore commonsense and medical evidence, too many governments will appease that attitude, and the upshot is that it we ourselves who will be making our airports unsafe for flyers.

CU 2.0 Podcast Episode 92 Sahil Pankhaniya, A Start Up Credit Union at George Washington University

What will blow your mind as you listen to this podcast is how savvy and smart the guest is. That’s Sahil Pankhaniya, a 20 year old student at George Washington University in Washington DC who is pursuing the launch of a wholly new, student run credit union credit union at the Washington DC institution.

How cool is that.

The effort has been written up in Credit Union Times, and here Mr. Pankhaniya talks for himself.

Know this: he thinks very big. What if, he asks, if they can roll out credit unions at universities across the nation? What if indeed.  Not only would that get students familiar with credit unions it also would provide a stream of trained potential hires for credit unions.

The hope is to launch the credit union in the fall, a date that had been May but the coronavirus epidemic has pushed that back.

Pankhaniya and his fellow students also need to raise around $55,000 more to meet NCUA’s capital requirements.

It’s an exciting story. Listen up

Along the way, we discuss CUNA’s “Open Your Eyes” campaign – hear our podcast with Teresa Freeborn on this.

Know too that a recent podcast guest, Bill Kennedy, is a booster of this effort. Hear him on students and their need for mentors here

And to learn more about start up Maine Harvest – now successfully chartered – listen here.

Like what you are hearing? Find out how you can help sponsor this podcast here. Very affordable sponsorship packages are available. Email rjmcgarvey@gmail.com

Find out more about CU2.0 and the digital transformation of credit unions here. It’s a journey every credit union needs to take. Pronto